Diagnosing
Diagnosing
Rose colored glasses
When a team jointly develops a depiction of the causal aspects of historical events, and how those led to their current situation, they need to be aware of the effect that their own beliefs have on their depiction of this history. - Robert Jervis
Narrative and story-telling are powerful psychological influences, especially within communities. We are 'wired' to desire to have our individual experiences become a part of our culture's folklore, and respond to the compelling stories of others in such contexts: Read more »
The map is not the terrain
Tell story about attempting to Include picture of modeling in action
<View Larger Mapp>Discuss pros and cons.
How we decide
The first book to use the unexpected discoveries of neuroscience to help us make the best decisions.
Since Plato, philosophers have described the decision-making process as either rational or emotional: we carefully deliberate, or we blink and go with our gut. But as scientists break open the mind's black box with the latest tools of neuroscience, they re discovering that this is not how the mind works. Our best decisions are a finely tuned blend of both feeling and reason and the precise mix depends on the situation. When buying a house, for example, it s best to let our unconscious mull over the many variables. But when we re picking a stock, intuition often leads us astray. The trick is to determine when to use the different parts of the brain, and to do this, we need to think harder (and smarter) about how we think.
Jonah Lehrer arms us with the tools we need, drawing on cutting-edge research as well as the real-world experiences of a wide range of deciders from airplane pilots and hedge fund investors to serial killers and poker players.
Timelines
A timeline is a retrospective representation of a linear sequence of significant events which have occurred during the accomplishment of some activity. A timetable provides a corresponding, forward-looking series for pre-arranged events, and is often organized as a tabular list. Such timetables are used to plan and track such activities for performing and reporting on future work. Each of the events associated with these timelines and timetables may be comprised of either top-level milestones or more detailed inchstones. Read more »
Trust, critical thinking, and decision-making
There is no longer much public debate about whether global warming is occurring or not. Articles like 'Mass extinction study casts cloud on future' paint a bleak picture of what lies ahead for the earth's population. But wait, if the future is cloudy, wouldn't things be cooling down?
My flippant remark is intended to reinforce that it is sometimes a bit hard to sort out sensationalism from hard science in policy-making for significant issues in society; too often, there is a 'rush to judgement' regarding major changes, when history indicates that such haste is rarely necessary, and when it is, the related decisions have as much chance to cause more problems as they do to fix the original situation. Often, the situation is simply more complicated than it appears; true science would expect that hypotheses would be developed, predictions made, experiments performed, results widely reviewed, options analyzed, and consensus established over a long period of time. But when a 'crisis' occurs, too often, this wise course is abandoned. Read more »