We have known for a long time that we have significant holes in our ability to properly perceive the world around us. Francis Bacon described these limitations as follows:

Behavioral psychologists tell us that we have two subsystems at work which unconsciously compete for our attention and influence the choices which we make in a given situation. The first of these subsystems is our intuition, which is usually fast, unconscious, effortless, implicit, and emotional. The second of these subsystems is our rational side, which is slower, conscious, explicit, logical, and tiring to employ: 

blog on the psychology of entreprenurial misjudgement is also relevant.

Discuss ladder of inference from Fifth Discipline

http://facilitatedsystems.com/weblog/2008/08/prediction-system-dynamics-...

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/10/economic-mi...